Pacific Micro-Tel Blog

The semiconductor industry for years was led by the PC as a technology driver. Vast resources came to bear on desktop and laptop computers running Intel, AMD and to a lesser extent Via which all made a family of X86 processors. These technology center pieces swept along DRAM, motherboard chipsets, hard disks, DVD drives, graphics cards, power supplies, and all of their attendant peripheral equipment. Microsoft was the undisputed emperor of this world empire and acted as a not so benevolent dictator.

How the mighty have fallen. The barbarians came to the door of the castle and stormed it with their armies of smartphones. All of these devices could run applications and be carried along with you like earlier pundits had promoted wearable PC’s. These smartphones communicated, ran applications, games and solved everyday business problems which had been the previous exclusive domain of PC’s, Mac’s and their ilk. But virtually none of them ran on X86 processors or Windows. Nearly all of them run the ARM processor instead of the familiar fare foisted on the planet by Intel and AMD. Virtually none of them ran Windows either. Apple runs their iPhone and iPad fiefdom on a derivative of the old Unix operating system called iOS. iOS itself is a subset of the Mac’s OSX operating system, based on a Unix kernel AKA Darwin. The rest of the mobile phone world embraced the other Unix derivative known as Android, which itself is a version of Linux. (More on that later). Intel and Microsoft have been essentially irrelevant in this transition. In a name change, Apple Computer is now only Apple.

The world’s telecos, carriers and ISP’s are feverishly eschewing wired networks for wireless 3G, 4G or LTE high speed networks. Broadband internet is coming to third world countries via these networks which require little trenching and costly infrastructure the way cable and DSL networks do.

Most of the passion and excitement now follows mobile phones, mobile chip manufacturers, display manufacturers, and the mobile network carriers that support them.

Distributors, brokers, system integrators and consultants would be well advised to follow this fertile territory for a lively income. Especially during such a challenging economy. The PC while still important has lost its luster and become a largely cheap commodity.

I do not have this completely figured out. What I do know is that there is not nearly as much manufacturing going on in the USA as there used to be. I used to be primarily in the semiconductor business. I still do derive a significant amount of income from dealing in semiconductors, but not nearly to the degree I used to.

Many of the friends and business associates I have known over the years in the semiconductor business are either out of business or being challenged to work much harder for a diminished return. Much of this can be attributed to a weak economy and outsourcing of manufacturing to third world countries.

The conventional wisdom tells us that the reason so much manufacturing has been outsourced are for 2 major reasons; lower labor rates and over regulation. Labor rates in China are unarguably lower than the USA. A recent article in the New York Times attributed much to this and the laziness of US workers. Thought some valid points were made, the majority of large OEM's have there products built on automated assembly lines. Certainly Apple's iPhones and iPads are not made by hand. So the complete fault of high labor rates must be in part specious. While Boeing's aircraft still require large quantities of labor to manufacture, electronic devices do not. Boeing did, however, have significant problems in trying to build their 787 Dreamliners in South Carolina. This was due to a run in with labor unions.

A stronger case could be made for government over regulation driving manufacturing from US soil. During the transition to RoHS electronic parts, vast quantities of manufacturing coincidentally fled to third world sites. Government had dictated that there could no longer be lead in the solder used to manufacture electronic parts. This decree caused manufacturers to rebuild entire assembly lines. Many of them fled to countries where government regulation was much more relaxed. The fear of further regulation in the US and Europe probably even accelerated the pace of outsourcing.

Many brokers and distributors of semiconductors have often been heard to lament over the loss of the "Good Old days". It is probably now time to move on.

Unix never caught on as much as it has (all flavors) because they don’t spend any money marketing it like the billions Microsoft does. That is why Microsoft has maintained its dominant position. Marketing. This only applies to the desktop though. Windows is only a success in the consumer market on PC’s. There are versions of Android (Google’s Linux) coming to the desktop. Google already dominates the smartphone market. Microsoft’s hegemony is finally over. It just took longer than many thought it would.

The best operating system is the one that gives you the most value. If one thinks that is Windows, that’s fine. I actually think Windows 7 is pretty good. Vista was terrible and I’m ambivalent about XP.

Microsoft cannot completely pitch Windows and do the complete technology rewrite they would probably like to do. That is because of the legacy installed base of PC’s. Smartphones are different. I already have Windows 8 running and it’s nicer than 7. Microsoft will also will have a version that runs the ARM chip, which is the CPU that 98% of smartphones run.

You can get a free copy of Windows 8 at the link below. It will only run for a year and then automatically require you to buy it though.

http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows

Unix was designed to do things PC’s were not capable of from the ground up. It was designed for preemptively multitasking main frames and mini computers. Windows was designed to accommodate the tiny little PC chips at the time. It had no ambitions like Unix. That is why Microsoft used to also market their own version called Xenix.

Now PC’s are more powerful than the main frames were at the beginning of Windows. There has been a great deal of code glued onto the body to make it do things it was never intended to do. 90% of the internet runs on some flavor of Unix not Windows. Google runs data centers which have thousands of servers running. They all run Linux. Linux and Unix also run 98% of all smart phones. The demise of Microsoft will never happen. Their monopoly position has faded, but they will always be a force. Lots of smart people run it.

Linux and BSD are free. Windows and OSX are not.

Pick your poison and be happy. I prefer an alternate to Billy’s farm though.

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